Time Series and Dynamic Models
This chapter discusses certain dynamic statistical models of interest in modeling time series data. Particular emphasis is placed on the problem of statistical adequacy: the postulated model does not exhibit departures from the underlying assumptions. Statistical models are specified in terms of probabilistic assumptions on the observable stochastic processes involved, which can often be assessed a priori using graphical techniques. The primary objective is to render empirical modeling of time series an informed systematic procedure that gives rise to reliable empirical evidence.